THE DISTRIBUTION

We created a health score for the US economy, think of it like Dave Portnoy's Pizza score. Similar to how Dave scores based on taste, crust, undercarriage, etc. we score based on things like unemployment, inflation, available jobs, etc.

If everything is in a good range, low unemployment, low inflation, high manufacturing index, more jobs added, we'll get a high score. One jobs report, everyone knows the rules.

The Secret Sauce: We use machine learning, i.e., advanced math to get the most accurate score possible.

Builder confidence remains stuck in pessimistic territory at 32 (anything below 50 means more builders view conditions as poor rather than good). High mortgage rates and construction costs continue to weigh on the housing market, though the index has stabilized after hitting a low of 32 in June.

The US added 1.6 million jobs over the past year. But the story varies wildly by state: Texas (+240k), New York (+165k), and Florida (+143k) led gains, while Louisiana (-21k) and DC (-7k) saw losses. Hover over states for details.

Think of private credit like this: instead of getting a loan from a bank, companies now borrow from investment funds. This market has grown from $8.5B to $42.3B since 2016 - that's like going from a corner store to a shopping mall. The orange bars show $26B in refinancing - companies rushing to restructure old loans. What's next: When everyone's racing to refinance and lending standards drop (25% of loans now have fewer protections), it usually means the party's ending. Expect tighter lending and higher defaults in 2026.

Americans got a lot more pessimistic about buying stuff this year. In January, only 7% said it was a bad time to buy things, but by April that jumped to 42%. Things have gotten better since then - now it's down to 25% in July. People are worried about high prices and whether they can afford big purchases.

Fewer people filed for unemployment benefits this week compared to the same time last year. 224K people filed claims in the week ending August 9th, 2025 - that's 10,000 fewer than the 234K who filed during the same week in 2024. When unemployment claims go down, it usually means companies are laying off fewer workers and the job market is staying stable.